The State of Life on Earth and a Big Belief in Science

In 2024, global carbon emissions from fossil fuels reached a record high. That may come as no surprise, as global carbon emissions from fossil fuels have reached record highs for at least the past several years, with 2022, 2023 and now 2024 all setting new records.

That fact begs the question: just how much of our natural resources—natural gas, as well as resources such as land and water—do our ways of life require? And how can we adapt them to stay within the limits of what the Earth can give? Scientists recently tackled those questions.

I’m glad that they did. And I’m not the only one. It seems a lot of us are thankful that there are scientists helping us out in life. In fact, despite what you may have heard about a surge in science denial and anti-science sentiments, a global survey spanning 68 countries reveals that public trust in scientists is still high.

That’s great news, because we need scientists more than ever.

Fossil fuel CO2 emissions increase again in 2024

Not only was 2024 the hottest year on record, but total global carbon emissions are also projected to reach a record high in 2024: 41.6 billion tons, up from 40.6 billion in 2023. Included in that total are fossil CO2 emissions, which alone are expected to total 37.4 billion tons, up 0.8% from 2023. This new research comes from the Global Carbon Project science team, which includes more than 120 scientists representing more than 80 scientific institutions around the world.

Even though the impacts of climate change are becoming increasingly dramatic and there’s an urgent need to cut emissions to slow climate change, the researchers say there is still “no sign” that the world has reached a peak in fossil CO2 emissions. Over the last 10 years, fossil CO2 emissions have risen while land-use change CO2 emissions have declined on average, leaving overall emissions roughly level over that period.

Both 2024’s rising fossil and land-use change CO2 emissions were exacerbated by drought conditions from deforestation and forest degradation fires during the El Nino climate event of 2023–2024. Other key findings from the 2024 Global Carbon Budget include:

• Globally, emissions from different fossil fuels in 2024 are projected to increase: coal (0.2%), oil (0.9%) and gas (2.4%). These contribute 41%, 32% and 21% of global fossil CO2 emissions, respectively. Given the uncertainty in the projections, it remains possible that coal emissions could decline in 2024, when the final results are in.

• China’s emissions (32% of the global total) are projected to marginally increase by 0.2%, although the projected range includes a possible decrease in emissions.

• U.S. emissions (13% of the global total) are projected to decrease by 0.6%.

• India’s emissions (8% of the global total) are projected to increase by 4.6%.

• European Union emissions (7% of the global total) are projected to decrease by 3.8%.

• Emissions in the rest of the world (38% of the global total) are projected to increase by 1.1%.

• International aviation and shipping (3% of the global total and counted separately from national/regional totals) are projected to increase by 7.8% in 2024 but remain below their 2019 pre-pandemic level by 3.5%.

• Globally, emissions from land-use change (such as deforestation) have decreased by 20% in the past decade, but they are set to rise in 2024.

• Permanent CO2 removal through reforestation and afforestation (new forests) is offsetting about half of the permanent deforestation emissions.

• Current levels of technology-based carbon dioxide removal (excluding nature-based means, such as reforestation) only account for about one-millionth of the CO2 emitted from fossil fuels.

• Atmospheric CO2 levels are set to reach 422.5 parts per million in 2024, 2.8 parts per million above 2023 and 52% above preindustrial levels.

• The effects of the temporary El Nino climate event also led to a reduction in carbon absorption by ecosystems on land (known as land CO2 “sinks”) in 2023, which is projected to recover since the El Nino ended by the second quarter of 2024.

• Emissions from fires in 2024 have been above the average since the beginning of the satellite record in 2003, particularly due to the extreme 2023 wildfire season in Canada (which persisted in 2024) and intense drought in Brazil.

• The land and ocean CO2 sinks combined continued to take up about half of the total CO2 emissions, despite being negatively impacted by climate change.

At the current rate of emissions, the Global Carbon Project science team estimates a 50% chance that global warming will exceed the Paris Agreement’s goal of keeping CO2 emissions below 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) consistently in about six years. This estimate is subject to large uncertainties, primarily due to additional warming coming from non-CO2 agents (such as aerosols, methane and nitrous oxide); however, it’s clear that the remaining carbon budget—and therefore the time left to meet the 1.5-degrees-Celsius target and avoid the worst impacts of climate change—has almost run out.

The researchers state that despite another rise in global emissions this year, there are many signs of positive progress at the country level. The latest data shows evidence of widespread climate action, with the growing penetration of renewables and electric cars displacing fossil fuels and decreasing deforestation emissions in the past decades confirmed for the first time.

Living on our planet without destroying it

With eight billion people, we use a lot of the Earth’s resources in ways that are likely unsustainable. Now, researchers at the University of Groningen in the Netherlands have taken stock of the situation.

Our consumption patterns affect the environment, that much we know. A clear example was just mentioned. The concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has been rising at an increasingly faster rate since the 1960s, resulting in global warming, along with all its dire consequences. There is a limit to the amount of consumption the Earth can support; and in 2009, scientists defined nine “planetary boundaries” as indicators of when we have reached that limit. Crossing the nine boundaries may lead to irreversible damage to the Earth’s resiliency and stability.

These planetary boundaries include indicators such as ocean acidification and the global use of freshwater. In 2023, six of these planetary boundaries had already been crossed. According to scientists, “the basic calculation is: given a certain number of people on the planet and the planetary boundaries, how much can we consume to stay inside these limits?”

At the moment, the richest 1% of the world’s population produces 50 times more greenhouse gases than the four billion people in the bottom 50%, say the University of Groningen researchers in their paper, published in the journal Nature in November 2024.

Using an extensive dataset covering up to 201 consumption groups across 168 countries, the scientists analyzed the impact of spending patterns on six, key, environmental indicators. The findings revealed how different consumer behaviors contribute to planetary transgressions and showed that if the world’s top 20% of consumers shifted their consumption habits toward more sustainable patterns, they could reduce their environmental impact by 25% to 53%. Changing consumption patterns in just the food and services sectors alone could help bring critical planetary boundaries back within safe limits.

Previous research has shown that if a diet with less red meat and more legumes and nuts was adopted by the richest part of the world, food-driven emissions would fall by 17%, even when the inhabitants of poorer nations increase their meat consumption. Another paper revealed how the livestock sector is dangerously violating several of the planetary boundaries. Any measures to counter this negative effect should be “region specific”; for example, a plant-based diet is not suitable for traditional Mongolian nomads, who depend on yaks and their milk.

The scientists say that when transgressions of planetary boundaries are identified, we shouldn’t focus so much on creating new technical solutions, as there are already so many that we don’t implement. And most governments subsidize bad behavior—such as subsidies for fossil fuels that are overcompensating for the mitigation effect that we achieve through carbon pricing, such as carbon taxes and carbon trading schemes. There are also many inconsistent policies, such as stimulating the use of heat pumps and, at the same time, raising the price of the electricity they use.

However, not all hope is lost, conclude the scientists: humanity can stay within the planetary boundaries. But we need political will to tackle issues such as climate change. What we require, they say, are evidence-based policies.

Global trust in science remains strong

And we’re in a good place for such evidence-based policies. A global survey spanning 68 countries reveals that public trust in scientists is still high.

This is the conclusion of an international team of 241 researchers, led by Switzerland’s University of Zurich and ETH Zurich. The survey—the largest post-pandemic study of trust in science, societal expectations and public views on research priorities—show that most people in most countries have a relatively high level of trust in scientists and want them to play an active role in politics and society. The researchers found no evidence for the often-repeated claim of a crisis of trust in science.

For this survey, the results of which were published in the journal Nature Human Behavior in January 2025, the scientists questioned 71,922 people in 68 countries, including many underresearched countries in the Global South. For the first time since the coronavirus pandemic, the study provided global, representative survey data on the populations and regions of the world in which researchers are perceived to be the most trustworthy, the extent to which they should engage with the public and whether science is prioritizing important research issues.

Across the 68 countries, the survey results demonstrated that the majority of the public has a relatively high level of trust in scientists (mean trust level was 3.62 on a scale of 1 [equaling very low trust] to 5 [signifying very high trust]). Most respondents also perceive scientists as qualified (78%), honest (57%) and concerned about people’s well-being (56%).

However, the results also reveal some areas of concern. Globally, less than half of respondents (42%) believe that scientists pay attention to the views of others. Many people in many countries feel that the priorities of science are not always well aligned with their own. The Zurich researchers recommend that scientists find ways to be more receptive to feedback and open to dialogue with the public.

The findings confirm the results of previous studies that show significant differences between countries and population groups. People with right-wing political views in Western countries tend to have less trust in scientists than those with left-wing views. This suggests that attitudes toward science tend to polarize along political lines. In most countries, however, political orientation and trust in scientists were not related.

Most respondents want science to play an active role in society and policymaking. Globally, 83% of respondents believe that scientists should communicate with the public, providing an impetus for increased science communication efforts. Only a minority (23%) believe that scientists should not actively advocate for specific policies. Fifty-two percent believe that scientists should be more involved in the policymaking process.

Participants gave high priority to research that improves public health, solves energy problems and reduces poverty. On the other hand, research to develop defense and military technology was given a lower priority. In fact, participants explicitly believe that science is prioritizing the development of defense and military technology more than they would like, highlighting a potential misalignment between public and scientific priorities.

The state of life on Earth

While the news of the ticking time bomb of climate change feels defeating, I find the results on a worldwide, strong belief in science uplifting. It reminds me of the mission statement of The Nature Conservancy, a global, environmental nonprofit that works to protect the Earth’s lands and waters: “United by nature. Guided by science.”

That says it well. Because we’re all united by the natural processes that define our planet, and it is only through science that we will find our path forward.

Here’s to finding your true places and natural habitats,

Candy